PUTTING RISK ON THE AGENDA

Global Catastrophic Risk Index

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Context

Since the publication of the Global Governance Forum’s Inaugural Global Catastrophic Risk Index (GCRI) in 2022, the global risk landscape has continued to rapidly evolve. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war between Israel and Iran and its proxies, extreme weather events around the globe, the continued retreat of democracy, and the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic all reflect the growing sense of precarity in the global community as the world becomes undeniably interconnected.

The 2025/2026 GCRI maintains the fundamental emphasis of its predecessor: that risks cannot be considered distinct and must be understood as interconnected, interdependent, and compounding. It also continues to underscore the strong link between economic development and vulnerability to catastrophic risks, with low-income countries facing greater exposure due to weak governance and underinvestment in human capital. At the same time, however, this report seeks to more deeply explore and illuminate the stark divergences in risk profiles that can occur among nations with similar economic and structural conditions.

To do this, the mechanics of the report have been improved in several important ways. First, it improves upon the 2022 edition by meaningfully expanding the scope and depth of its data. The 2025/2026 report includes 163 countries in its analysis — up from 118 and now accounting for nearly 99% of global GDP and 98% of the global population — and 109 indicators — up from 85. Additionally, the 2025/2026 Index introduces Health & Human Security as a standalone pillar, reflecting lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic on national health and risk profiles. It also incorporates a set of technological indicators under the Exogenous Vulnerabilities pillar, recognizing the growing role of information technology in global interactions.


Introduction

Catastrophes take many forms: from economic downturns to political strife, social unrest, and environmental disaster. The impact of such crises can be multiplied by governments' failure to recognize them quickly, let alone preemptively, and their inability to respond effectively. These crises can be further compounded by economic and social instability stemming from poverty, poor governance, corruption and conflict. Moreover, as outlined by the COVID-19 pandemic, a limited access to healthcare can significantly exacerbate vulnerabilities and hinder resilience. As the world becomes undeniably interconnected, significant shocks to the system are unlikelyto be contained within their country of origin. Instead, they will propagate among regional neighbors and trading partners with the potential to create complex, widespread emergencies.

The GCRI has been constructed to provide a comprehensive assessment of global vulnerabilities and resilience, helping policymakers, businesses, and civil society anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to systemic risks. Each of 163 countries is scored across eight primary risk categories — governance, health, economics, gender equality, environment, education, business climate, and exogenous indicators — capturing both internal vulnerabilities and resilience factors. By leveraging 109 unique indicators from multiple trusted sources, including the World Bank, the United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund, the GCRI integrates nearly 20,000 data points to provide a nuanced yet accessible view of global risk. This data is grounded in the principle that risks cannot be considered distinct and must be understood as interconnected, interdependent, and compounding.

The 2025/2026 GCRI finds the most at-risk countries in the world to be Yemen, Afghanistan, Haiti, South Sudan, and Sudan. In contrast, the least-at-risk countries are Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, and Iceland. While the most and least at-risk countries align with expectations, this year's report reveals striking disparities in risk profiles among countries that may otherwise seem similarly positioned, expanded on in case studies throughout the report.

PILLAR I

Quality of Governance

In addition to being essential for a country's stability, prosperity, and development, effective governance reflects a state's capacity to manage the risks outlined in other pillars of the Index. Strong governance fosters economic growth, promotes transparency, and enhances resilience to external shocks, while weak governance breeds corruption, fragility, and instability, increasing a country's vulnerability to risks.

Political stability—characterized by durable institutions, peaceful transitions of power, and the rule of law—and the absence of violence are the two fundamental factors for quality governance. Following recent changes across the global governance landscape, the GCRI identified the Middle East as the region with the highest governance risk, followed by Africa, Arab States, and Asia & Pacific.

A comparison of Haiti and Barbados illustrates the role of political stability in risk prevention in otherwise similar countries. Haiti's governance failure has fueled gang violence, economic collapse, and food insecurity, leaving 5.5 million citizens in need of assistance. In contrast, Barbados' strong rule of law, effective institutions, and political stability have enabled it to foster a sustainable economy and prosperous society better equipped to withstand risks.

GCRI analysis of regime types reveals that closed autocracies face nearly double the catastrophic risk of liberal democracies. With authoritarianism on the rise, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, safeguarding transparency—through a free press—and strengthening accountability mechanisms are more critical than ever to prevent corruption and sustain long-term stability.

PILLAR II

Health & Human Security

Killing nearly 15 million people globally and triggering the worst global recession since World War II, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the profound impact of health on economic, social, and political stability. Notably, it highlighted the importance of a strong health infrastructure for mitigating global risks.

Providing universally accessible handwashing facilities, routine vaccinations, and a sufficient number of healthcare professionals are essential to mitigating health risks, yet great disparities exist across regions, countries, and socioeconomic groups. A key indicator of healthcare coverage and quality, the under-5 mortality rate reflects stark regional inequalities, with Africa’s average under-5 mortality nearly twice the global average.

Comparing two South American countries, Bolivia’s shortage of healthcare workers—just 13 doctors per 10,000 citizens compared to Uruguay’s 46—underscores the close link between health indicators. Bolivia’s under-5 mortality rate is over 3.5 times higher than Uruguay’s, 25% fewer children receive routine vaccinations, and life expectancy is 13 years lower. Meanwhile, Uruguay’s well-funded National Integrated Health System has expanded access to care and improved public health outcomes by integrating public and private providers.

Beyond health security, human security risks such as violence, trafficking, and exploitation exacerbate instability. Countries with weak governance and inadequate law enforcement are particularly vulnerable, as organized crime and systemic violence undermine social cohesion, disrupt communities, and foster environments of fear and insecurity.

PILLAR III

Economic Stability

Macroeconomic stability is essential for states to ensure the security and well-being of their citizens, maintain law and order, and provide necessary social services. Economic instability, in turn, amplifies risks across other pillars, including national stability.

Among otherwise similar countries, differences in economic stability highlight its critical role in shaping national stability. For example, Venezuela’s decade of hyperinflation—peaking at 1,700,000% in 2018—caused by huge budget deficits financed by money printing and made worse by overreliance on its oil reserves has yielded an almost unparalleled crisis of unrest, emigration, and political instability, along with widespread malnutrition and a public health crisis. In contrast, Chile’s stable inflation and prudent policies have fostered steady economic growth, reduced poverty, and improved social welfare, causing Chile to emerge as one of the most prosperous and stable countries in the region.

Beyond inflation, other macroeconomic factors shape national stability. High unemployment, as seen in South Africa (28%), fuels social unrest, while income inequality exacerbates tension and resentment. Additionally, excessive public debt constrains many governments’ ability to invest in long-term development and respond to future risks.

As the world becomes increasingly interdependent, states can build resilience against economic risks by sustaining economic dynamism—through fiscal responsibility, stable inflation, and high labor force participation—and practicing greater integration with global markets.

PILLAR IV

Gender Inequality

Integrating women into political, economic, and social institutions is essential for a country's resilience to major risks. Nations that successfully include women in leadership and the workforce tend to have stronger economies, greater political stability, and a more cohesive society.

Rwanda and Nigeria illustrate this contrast. With women holding 61% of parliamentary seats and 86% labor force participation, Rwanda has fostered equitable policies and a fast-growing economy that has strengthened the country’s resilience to economic shock and lifted the standard of living. In contrast, Nigeria’s low female representation—4% in parliament and 49% in the workforce—has contributed to exclusionary policies, economic stagnation, and political instability.

When legal restrictions prevent women from contributing to a nation—whether due to tradition, religion, social taboos, or outright prejudice—that nation suffers by constraining their talent pool. Despite the benefits achieved to global competition by women’s full participation in the economy, 178 countries maintain legal barriers that prevent women’s full economic participation.

As explored in the Global Governance Forum’s 2024/25 Gender Equality and Governance Index, the 20 worst-performing nations in terms of gender equality are also among the most violent countries in the world, showcasing the need for countries to enforce domestic protections for women. To this day, 112 countries do not criminalize marital rape, 49 countries do not have specific laws against domestic violence, and 45 have no official legislation that address sexual harassment.

PILLAR V

Environmental Vulnerabilities

As climate change accelerates, environmental factors increasingly shape a country’s catastrophic risk profile. Rising temperatures intensify natural disasters, and nations unprepared for climate-induced events face heightened risks.

The 2025/26 GCRI highlights that countries ignoring environmental risk indicators are more vulnerable to both immediate and long-term threats. While transitioning to renewable energy mitigates climate risks, major economies like the U.S. and Russia remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, increasing their exposure to environmental and economic shocks.

Air pollution, which is three times more detrimental to life expectancy than unsafe water and 89 times more detrimental than conflict and terrorism, serves as a key risk indicator within regions as seen in the contrast between Thailand and the Philippines. Despite similar urbanization and industrialization paths, Thailand’s strong environmental policies have kept air pollution-related deaths low (46 per 100,000), while weak regulations in the Philippines have resulted in one of the world’s highest rates (203 per 100,000), severely impacting public health.

Environmental risks also compound economic vulnerabilities. In the Philippines, pollution-related illnesses strain healthcare systems and reduce productivity, hindering growth. Meanwhile, Thailand’s cleaner air strengthens its tourism sector, a key driver of its economy.

PILLAR VI

Education and Skills

Education is a core pillar for a country’s ability to mitigate global risks. While quality education fosters individual development and economic growth, low education rates fuel unrest, populist movements, and extremism as large segments of a population struggle to participate meaningfully in their economies.

While nearly 90% of children worldwide are enrolled in primary school, stark disparities in access and quality persist, particularly in regions affected by political instability and gender inequality. In developing nations, education is a key determinant of economic growth, distinguishing stagnant economies from globally competitive ones.

For example, in Niger, where primary school enrollment stands at just 65%, limited educational access restricts workforce development, reinforcing a cycle of poverty and conflict. In contrast, Botswana’s 94% enrollment rate—backed by an education budget equal to 8% of its GDP—has cultivated a skilled labor force, enabling economic diversification and long-term stability.

Within education, countries that prioritize vocational training and education in emerging technologies, such as AI, are better equipped to navigate economic shifts and future catastrophic risks. These advantages are further amplified by gender parity in education, as higher female educational attainment is linked to lower fertility rates, improved child health, and increased workforce participation, strengthening overall economic resilience.

PILLAR VII

Business Environment Resilience

A strong business environment fosters entrepreneurship, innovation, and growth, strengthening a country’s ability to manage future risks while demonstrating the effectiveness of state institutions. In contrast, weak regulations and judicial systems increase vulnerability to global shocks, fueling corruption and economic instability.

Secure property rights are fundamental to economic stability. Countries with strong protections attract investment, encourage innovation, and promote economic participation, while weak property rights fuel corruption and deter growth.

Efficient commercial dispute resolution through contract enforceability also plays a critical role in reducing risk, as seen in Bangladesh and Singapore. Bangladesh’s weak legal framework and low dispute resolution score (56.33) have discouraged investment and pushed businesses into the informal sector, leading to unregulated labor practices. Meanwhile, Singapore’s high score (87.07) reflects a strong judicial system that boosts investor confidence, supports financial services, and drives sustained economic growth.

Other key indicators of a strong business environment include effective tax collection, which curbs underground economies, and contract enforceability, which upholds the rule of law. Transparent, fair, and efficient regulations further reduce corruption, promote stability, and support job creation.

PILLAR VIII

Exogenous Vulnerabilities

While not stand-alone pillars, indicators grouped under the subheadings of demographics, technology, and defense are vital to the GCRI, often serving as both causes and consequences of the risks examined in the Index’s core pillars.

Demographics

Demographics significantly shape global catastrophic risks, impacting economic stability, resource distribution, and environmental resilience. While dense urban areas drive innovation and infrastructure growth, they also strain resources and heighten climate-related risks, particularly in low-elevation coastal regions vulnerable to rising sea levels and waterborne diseases. Despite driving economic growth and inclusive development, migration presents risks of job competition, wage suppression, and cultural shifts.

Technology

As technology advances, internet connectivity plays a critical role in mitigating economic, political, and social risks. In Morocco, where 88% of the population has internet access, connectivity has fueled political activism, particularly for the LGBTQ+ community. However, it also introduces risks such as cyberattacks, misinformation, and mass surveillance. In Pakistan, with only 21% internet access, frequent government-imposed shutdowns and slowdowns disrupt democratic processes and stifle economic activity. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence amplifies these challenges, increasing the risks of mass job displacement, widening income inequality, and the proliferation of autonomous weapons.

Defense

The level of security threats a country faces is a key indicator of catastrophic risk. Armed conflict devastates infrastructure, collapses social systems, and displaces populations. Beyond national borders, conflicts often spill over, destabilizing entire regions, disrupting trade, and exacerbating global insecurity. A major challenge to global security is the lack of an effective collective security system, as envisioned in the UN Charter. The Global Governance Forum’s report, A Second United Nations Charter: Modernizing the UN for a New Generation, explores this issue, proposing reforms to strengthen collective security.

Conclusion

This edition of the Global Catastrophic Risk Index takes a closer look at countries in the middle of the global risk distribution, highlighting the unique factors that differentiate nations that may appear similar at first glance. The findings reaffirm that no country is immune to risk and underscore policymakers’ ongoing failure to address systemic and environmental threats. However, awareness of catastrophic risks is growing, as demonstrated by the 2022 U.S. Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act—the first legislation of its kind—mandating a systematic assessment of existential and global threats.

Even under the best circumstances, risk can only be managed—not eliminated. With authoritarianism on the rise, democratic institutions weakening, and international cooperation unraveling at an alarming rate, global risks are compounding in scale and severity, demanding immediate and coordinated action.



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